Thursday, September 10, 2009

Final Frames for European Qualification

Throughout the soccer following world you are going to be hard pressed to find somebody who does not agree with the following statement: The continent of Europe boast the best soccer on the planet. Most people will agree with you on this, as the continent has most of the World Cup winning nations (taking 9 cups overall). South America has also claimed 9 cups, but only spread between 3 nations. Also Europe's Champions League is considered the best club cup competition in the world. With that being said World Cup Qualification in Europe always gives us plenty of stories to follow, as every year a team who was perceived to make it to the World Cup finals fall short in the qualification process. With the best teams playing in high stakes matches, the road to determining the 14 nations who will represent Europe in the 32 nation tournament is always interesting. Here is a group-by-group analysis of the 9 groups in UEFA World Cup Qualification.

Group 1: This group is one of the more open groups in the Association, Denmark holds the lead with 18 points, Sweden is in second with 15 points. Powerhouse Portugal (who is led by super-star Cristiano Ronaldo) and Hungry are trailing with 13 points. Each of the top four have two games left. Denmark and Sweden play in a match where the winner could very well take the group, Portugal and Hungry play in an elimination game on the same day. In the final round both Sweden and Portugal have easy games to finish the qualifying campaign as they play Albania, and Malta respectively. With an easy stretch a head for these two sides, look for the Swedes to barely win the group, and Portugal lives to fight another day finishing in second.

Group 2: No real superpowers in this group, right now Switzerland has the lead with 17 points, and play Luxembourg and they are at home against Israel the Swiss should collect 6 points to guarantee a spot in the World Cup. Greece and Latvia both have 14 points and play each other next in a crucial match, after that they finish with two easy matches with Greece playing Luxembourg and Latvia playing Moldova. Whoever can win between the two, and take care a business should secure the second play spot. Israel has an outside shot at second, but needs Greece and Latvia to slip up to advance.

Group 3: With 19 points Slovakia needs a draw in one of there final two matches to qualify as the group winner. Slovenia is in second with 14 points tied with Northern Ireland, but the Irish have only one game left where Slovenia has two, as they play Slovakia, then will collect 3 points against pathetic San Marino. Northern Ireland finishes with the Czech Republic in a match where the loser will be eliminated from contention, (which is a huge blow for the Czechs). Before that match the Czechs will play Poland in another elimination style match, as the Poles need to win there last 2, and have things go there way to finish second. With Slovakia about guaranteed the group, the Slovenians should wrap-up second as they play San Marino, a team who has a -43 goal differential. Sorry Poland, better luck in 2014, but it is not happening for you guys this year.

Group 4: Germany and Russia have locked up the top two spots, with the other nations being mathematically eliminated. The Germans hold a one point lead, but the two nations will play in what will be the group championship at Russia. Germany beat Russia 2-1 at Germany, the difference between the two teams is that Germany has tied only one match, and Russia has lost only one match (to Germany). Still, winning the group is vital, because nobody wants to play in home-away play-off series for the second place finishers.

Group 5: Well what is there to say with a record of 8-0, Spain has secured the group with 24 points. The Spaniards have outscored there opponents 21-2 in qualifying and look like contenders for the Cup. Bosnia-Herzegovina has 16 points in second, a win against lowly Estonia will see them through as second place finishers. Only Turkey can catch them, but the Turks need to beat Belgium and Armenia (Turkey vs. Armenia?...I'm sure the crowd will be well behaved) to put them at 18 points, even then Bosnia just needs to beat Estonia and they will have 19 points, and progress to the play-off round.

Group 6: Same story, different group and nation. England have gone 8-0 in there matches with a 31-5 goal ratio. With the English securing the group the focus is on second where Croatia has the spot for now with 17 points. However, Ukraine has 15 points and 2 matches left, compared to Croatia's one. The catch is that extra game Ukraine has is against England, so much will rest on how England plays. If Fabio Capello puts his 'A' team out with qualification assured. If so then Ukraine catches a break, if not then it will come down to the last day. Where both teams play easy matches. My guess is that Capello has too much pride to surrender a perfect record, will play to beat Ukraine, and Croatia will advance with a win over Kazakhstan, to secure second.

Group 7: With 19 points Serbia just need to win one of there last two matches to get into the World Cup, and with Romania and Lithuania left one their schedule Serbia is sure to advance. That leaves the focus on second place Only Austria can catch France, but the French can get into the play-off with a win against the Faroe Islands (automatic), or tie Austria. If Austria can beat France they still need to win there match against Lithuania, and hope for a French slip up against the Faroe Islands. Look for Serbia to win the group, and France to come in second.

Group 8: Italy and Ireland are the top dogs in the group, and the two play each other next. Defending World Champion Italy has a 4 point lead over the Irish, and an Italian win a draw will secure the group for them. If Ireland wins, Italy can still win the group by beating Cyprus (which you can take it to the bank that they will). Ireland can still just beat Montenegro and secure second position, no matter what happens during the Italy match.

Group 9: I always believe the teams in group 9 have a disadvantage since they play less games, the second place team is likely to be the side excluded from the play-off because they have the fewest points among the second. Scotland sits in second in the group, but can not advance into the play-offs. The Netherlands have one the group in a landslide, boasting a perfect record.

While some groups are all but over, there still are some great races left before the intense play-off battle for European Qualification to the World Cup. Rushing through the teams mind is the idea of stepping up in big games, and do not take matches against the little guys for granted. Whatever the results may be, the final rounds of UEFA Qualifying will certainly live up to the standard this Association has set with its rich history.

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