Friday, September 11, 2009

CONCACAF Qualifying winds down.

After 8 rounds of Qualifying to determine who will represent North and Central America, as well as the Caribbean, drama is still to be found with 2 rounds remaining. While it is clear as day who the top 4 nations will be, the race for who will avoid the dreaded fourth place finish is still on. According to the rules in CONCACAF Qualifying the top 3 nations will advance to the World Cup, while the fourth place team will play the fifth place team from South America (CONMEBOL). Since this format has been used, the fifth place team from South American has beaten the fourth place team from their Northern Counter-part. It is this incentive to avoid fifth that makes the race for the top 3 so thrilling. With so much pressure to make it to South Africa 2010, every result will matter in the final two round. Here is review of the current situation team by team.

1. United States (5-2-1) 16 points: Well, it was not pretty, but the US is in first. The Yanks have struggled on the road with a dismal 1-2-1 away record, the win over Trinidad being the only time the US has collected 3 points on the road. However, what is more troubling has been the inconsistent play the US has shown. With the exception of a 2-0 over Mexico, and a 3-0 over T&T, the US did not look like the Giants of CONCACAF that they really are. Still the US needs only one point from there final two matches. They could pull that off at Honduras, but that will not be easy. If they lose to Honduras they are sure to at least get a draw at home against Costa Rica, since the Americans have not lost at home since September of 2001. But a final round match against Costa Rica should not be taken lightly! Still the US is sure to go through.

2. Mexico (5-3) 15 points: Before qualifying began, if somebody told me that Mexico would be in second at this stage I would not be surprised. After 3 matches that same statement was make at me, I might of called that person nuts. Mexico was 1-3, and sacked there coach Sven Goeren-Erikson, and all was not well in Azteca. Since then the Mexicans have wielded off 4 straight wins, including a come from behind home win against eternal rival United States. The bigger surprise is that Chicago Fire star Blonco, and his return to the National Team. Blanco was considered retired to International Football, but he has returned and led this young Mexican team to second in the region. A win against Costa Rica in the fortress that is Azteca will send the Mexicans to South Africa, if not then Mexico can still beat up on Trinidad and they should be in the top three.

3. Honduras (4-3-1) 13 points: A respectable week for Honduras could have been a magical one for the Ticos. On Saturday, Honduras thrashed Trinidad and Tobago 4-1 at home, and with that win Honduras was first in the standings, edging out the Americans on goal differential. Then playing at the much feared Azteca Honduras was holding there own against Mexico, till in the 74th minute a call for a Mexico PK Honduras looked like they could recover a point on the road. Then Cuauhtemoc Blonco buried the PK, and Mexico went on to win 1-0. A win at home against the US should see Honduras through, but the situation gets complicated if they tie, or lose at home. Honduras travels at El Salvador, a match where they should hope to get 3 points, but it will not be an easy task. El Salvador plays for pride, and will not bend to anybody. Even if they do beat El Salvador, they still will be scoreboard watching and hope the US will beat Costa Rica, and Mexico slips up in one of there last two matches. Despite them being safe right now, I'm picking Honduras to be the odd man out, and finish fourth. Sorry Honduras, good effort, but you are not done yet.

4. Costa Rica (4-4) 12 points: A week ago Costa Rica leading the region, and were in control of there destiny- things were looking good. Ahh, how week can change the world. On Saturday Costa Rica hosted Mexico, and had a chase to cement there claim to the top 3 by beating Mexico, and putting the Mexican on the ropes. This could have been done, since nobody in the region has had a great time playing on the road. Then, Mexico had a good day on the road. El Tri destroyed the host 3-0 and make Costa Rica look silly. While a loss at home is a real spirit breaker in qualifying, there is no shame losing to a red-hot Mexican team. Costa Rica could recover by traveling to El Salvador to beat up on there neighbor (a team already mathematically eliminated), and put them back on track. Rudy Corrales' late minute strike ended that hope, as El Salvador upset Costa Rica 1-0 to finish a horrifying week for Costa Rica. Fourth is not were you want to be at the end of the campaign. Costa Rica need to beat T&T at home, then hope that the US has already qualified so they can perhaps catch a US 'B' team. If not then Costa Rica could be in trouble, especially if they are playing a desperate American team in Washington DC. I have Costa Rica just edging out Honduras, as the US probably will not field an all-star side against Costa Rica if they collect a point, so Costa Rica should collect 4 points, where I believe Honduras will take only 2.

5. El Salvador (2-4-2) 8 points. Still could slide into fourth place, but it is not looking good for El Salvador. El Salvador has played with some intensity this week, giving the American all they could handle in Utah before falling to the Yanks 2-1, and really sinking there chances. But, El Salvador would not lie down, and pulled the shocker of the week when they hosted Costa Rica. Late match heroics keep the hope alive for El Salvador (and it is always nice to ruin the hopes of rival teams). Still, El Salvador needs to win or tie at Mexico (there is a big problem) and even if they manage to do that, WHICH THEY WILL NOT. They still need to beat Honduras at home. If those two amazing feats are accomplished, and other results go El Salvador's way, then they will advance....to the fourth place spot, and the dreaded play-off-CONGRATS

6. Trinidad & Tobago (1-5-2) 5 points. I do not know what is more pathetic, Trinidad's play this year, or the attendance against the US. Serious organization issues here. Better Luck for 2014 T&T. Still good effort against the Americans, but good Lord, get some folks in the stands.

The race for the top 3 spots in CONCACAF will be something fierce. It will be a fight to a finish, and more importantly, it will be fun to watch. The road to South Africa is winding down, with every turn providing a different twist to the plot that is World Cup Qualifying.

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